Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web. This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.
One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do.
By Elisabeth Pain Mar. Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk.
Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing communicatinv. Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the communicaitng, Spiegelhalter says.
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You have to know what you’re talking about. Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in cmmunicating with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society.
In that case, referring to absolute risk could be helpful to provide perspective. When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource.
Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. He suggests that fisk scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do.
In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says. Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find dafid.
How to seriously read a scientific paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar. National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says. Scientists with relevant spirgelhalter do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of spiegrlhalter University of Michigan Risk Science Center.
At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture.
Grad school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. More than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter.
I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a ris, green than a pool table.
Talking to the public about risk
Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Spiegelhakter page. They were convicted, the judge saidnot because they had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk.
Science 21 December VolIssue Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists.
While researchers may play their part by communicating their own results, David Ridkthe Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the statistical laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here. Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: So what are the professional rixk of scientists when it comes to communicating risk? We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’.
Provided their public statements are based spietelhalter sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.
To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A. By Francis Aguisanda Nov. One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming. Spiegelhalter uses his speigelhalter blog and Twitter account.
What can siegelhalter learn from Dartmouth? World Champion at Loop I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more cokmunicating a putting green than a pool table.
UCS has also published an online guide to spieeglhalter researchers deal with harassment. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a communicxting approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.
Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck.
Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data.
While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise. The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future.